By Chandre Dharmawardana
chandre.dharma@yahoo.ca

Most observers believe that the up-coming presidential polls will be a close fight among the three main contenders, namely, Ranil Wickremasinghe, Sajith Premadasa, and Anura K Dissanayaka. Recent opinion polls have put Anura and Sajith in a very close fight for the top position, with Ranil coming along from the side. If this picture is correct, the presidential poll will NOT select a unique winning candidate who has polled more than 50% of the votes.

In some other countries where the executive presidential system is used, if a first vote does not bring out a unique winner, then a new poll is held, where the contest is only between the first two winners. Sri Lanka has not adopted this system. Instead, it has advised its electors to mark second and third preferences on the long ballot sheet. The numerals 1, 2 and 3 can be used to for this purpose. If only a single X has been used, that becomes the number one preference, with no second preference indicated.

However, it is likely that voters have not given much thought about indicating their second and third preferences. The political leaders have also shunned the issue.

There has been no previous case where a hung presidential election had to go back to preferences to choose a winning candidate. In fact, even when a candidate was declared to have polled more than 50%, the authenticity of the win has been contested and people have taken to the streets. The JVP, which usually polled about 3-4% of the votes once claimed that the results were a computer “jillmart” (whatever that is), while claims of an abduction of the Election Commissioner as well as other conspiracy theories were circulated.

So, if a winner has to be chosen on the basis of counted preferences, the decision becomes less transparent and there is a great likelihood of civil unrest. Has the Election Commission considered this situation and planned for the turbulent situation that may arise if the elected president has to be declared on the basis of counted second preferences? Prior planning for extra security is essential here.

Some sections of Sri Lankan society as well as Western and Indian interests are uneasy about a possible JVP-NPP victory that would make Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) the executive president of a Sri Lanka, a country deeply mired in foreign debt and ripe for a fire sale. As such, if AKD were to be declared the winner on the basis of second-preference counts, then powerful groups wishing a very different outcome may execute disruptive pogrammes that the Election Commission (EC) must anticipate and prepare for.

The other side of the coin also must be considered. At least one Marxist intellectual writing recently in a Sri Lankan newspaper has advocated that Marxist parties must maintain an armed (weaponised) wing that it could call upon, to “protect the political gains of the party” that it may have gained by other means, if such gains are threatened. So, isn’t there a possibility that the “armed wing of the party” would act if the NPP does not win the presidency when preferences are counted? Has the EC the back-up plans and military force to face such an emergency?

The most prodigious spinner of conspiracy theories among politicians happens to be Wimal Weerawansa of the newly minted “Sarvajana” group that is fielding Dilith Jayaweera.

The coming elections, with the likelihood of there being no clear first-round winner would provide much fertile material for such conspiracy theories. However, the danger exists mainly from local groups rather than from an alleged “deep state”. The last days of the mass uprising known as the Aragalaya were marred with violence, as well as by an attempt to march on the parliament and take it over, within an authentic Rosa Luxemburg script of the Spartacist uprising resurrected from 1919. If the election results lead to a turbulent situation, then pet Bolshevik theories of a small group capturing power on behalf of the working people can get resurrected. The last phase of the Aragalaya showed that there were local armed groups that could execute such a pogramme.

What if the turbulence of the electoral process is successfully overcome, and one of the candidates is enthroned? If Ranil or Sajith were enthroned, some type of oligarchic rule with strong Indian business-intervention as well as much corrupt politics will be the order of the day.

If AKD were enthroned, we would be in uncharted territory. Any change of the Constitution, or change of the system, requires a 2/3 majority and approval by people at a referendum. So, AKD could only govern within the present system until he gets that type of public support at a general election. That would be a very hard task because AKD’s enthronement would be accompanied by a strong flight of all mobile capital as well as much talent. This happened even in 1970 when FEECs and tight exchange control were introduced.

The support of ex-pat technologists for the NPP will have little impact without the capital to implement changes. Even if capital were available, the bottleneck for all industrial and agricultural change would be the limited rate of production of energy. Currently, the average energy consumption of a Sri Lankan is of the order of 600 kWh per year, and most of this is not used for industrial or agricultural production. There is very little oversupply or planned power resources that can be used for industrial growth. In contrast, an average European uses about 6000 kWh per year.

Sri Lanka has a large debt, which has doubled since the time when President Gotabaya left the country fearing for his own safety. I have summarised (for a US readership) some of the background circumstances that led to Gotabhaya’s resignation when the Aragalaya became violent in the link given below.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2023/01/05/the_us_must_learn_from_sri_lankas_green_policy_mistakes_873852.html

Gotabhaya’s ouster was linked to foolish decisions with regard to agriculture, energy availability, as well as financial management which was in the hands of the then finance minister Basil Rajapaksa.

The 250-page planning documents of the NPP, with contributions from a variety of scientists, engineers, academics and business men show that they took the trouble to plan. In fact, as General Molte had asserted, plans themselves fall apart at the first contact with the enemy, but the process of planning is what is important. And yet, no plan, however perfect, can work without an input of capital. This input cannot wait, but must be immediately available, as opportunities do not wait for capital.

Unfortunately, a small country like Sri Lanka is completely at the mercy of world markets with fluctuating energy and food prices. Hence the best laid plans have little or no value until the country acquires self-sufficiency in energy production and in food production. So, the only plan needed is a plan for basic self-sufficiency in energy and food. Both these objectives can be achieved, but this requires several years of prudent government. That had not happened in this country, especially after the mid 1950s.

It is very unlikely that AKD and the NPP would be able to attract any foreign capital into Sri Lanka that it would need to develop the country, in addition to paying the outstanding foreign debts. When Malaysia and other countries in South East Asia attracted big capital (like Mitsubishi) some decades ago, foreign investors were given guarantees of cheap un-unionised labour as well as decade-long tax holidays. Sri Lanka cannot give such guarantees if the governing party wishes to have a socialist face. In any case, governments with a Marxist label, e.g. Cuba and many other countries in Latin America, or the state of Keralain India will not attract Western capital. Such countries can only lean on a superpower, forfeiting much of their sovereignty.

However, the immediate task for the EC is to recognise that if there is no clear winner polling over 50%, then a very turbulent situation may arise. The public can only hope that the EC has drawn up the necessary contingency plans to deal with this uncharted territory.