By Asoka S. Seneviratne –

Prof. Asoka.S. Seneviratne

“that these dead shall not have died in vain– that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth” ~ (U.S. President Abraham Lincoln)

When Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) won the presidency with 42 percent of the votes, all opposition parties undermined it by stating that 58 percent of voters were against him, so it was not a win as the majority were against him. At the same time, hardly anyone in opposition wanted to appreciate and value 42 percent based on the 3 percent of the votes that the AKD obtained in 2019, an unprecedented jump. I understand the above is not a relevant assessment at all. The victory marked a turning point in political history since 1948 that will never go along the path of green or blue or “class” and ”Wallawwa politics”, is the matter. The NPP politics of the people or the people’s victory cannot be taken back at any cost so that it will reach the desired destination that the public and the country expect, “A Thriving Nation, A Beautiful life”.  The purpose of those articles is to present the above convincingly and acceptably because of the claim that 58 percent of voters were against AKD, while only 42 percent supported AKD. The above will go to the general election on 14 November 2024, determining the destiny of UNP, SLFP, SJB, and SLPP.

The reality of the jump from 3% to 42 % of NPP

The above-mentioned “Class” and “Wallawa” politics are related to four political parties, UNP, SLFP, SJB and SLPP that have dominated the people and the country since 1948. When they were in power hand in hand, they gave top priority to looking after their interest by accumulating assets and safeguarding only a few associated with them. Based on the above, it was the mounting corruption, fraud, nepotism, mismanagement,  mounting economic pressures of the people, widespread disillusion, and in short, all opposing forces that retarded systematic economic growth and development that disappointed and frustrated the public to support AKD.

In short, the corrupt political system of the four political parties and their politicians forced the people to choose an AKD-led NPP or a new political culture, irrespective of the political ideology of the NPP/JVP, the ground reality. The public expressed their utter disappointment, frustration, or position by stating that “we do not want 225; they all must go home,” which had been there since 2019. As I can remember, the 225 Must Go Home slogan was started at the time of the Gotabaya government, and it was intense with the ex-president RW-led government. Many may think the above slogan has little substance, but the ground reality is different.

It is not intended to go back to the Gotabaya regime and economic hardships faced by the public, the absence of good governance alone, it is true and correct that the ex-president RW-led government did not care for the constitution and judiciary either; the ex-president admitted publicly that he was a cunning politician. Before the presidential election, ex-President RW and his government did their utmost to postpone the presidential election from 2 years to 5 years and then to 10 years with the support of his blind close associates, corrupt or undemocratic. Basil and SLPP interfered with different tactics and preferred that the parliamentary election be held first, again a political corruption. SLFP did not have any direction; it only had divisions and calamities. RW cunningly worked to have the support of SLPP and SLFP but utterly failed. Then he turned to SJB, and that, too, failed. Given the above background, political alliances were mushrooming. RW appeared as an independent presidential candidate and went with the Gas Cylinder. Basil was fed up, and Normal was confused, blaming RW for having a habit of breaking parties. Yes, it is true, as he broke SLFP, SLPP and UNP, too. Along with the above, all opposition parties were convinced that the NPP was the common enemy, so winning the presidential election was in balance for them. But the NPP determined to win.

Indeed, the opposition parties’ corrupt political culture or system made the NPP the common enemy—a point they did not realize by them. Along with the sources and causes of ARAGALAYA, the four parties mentioned above understood well that their fortunes were ending, as people were rallying behind the NPP—the background or the naked truth of the jump of NPP from 3 percent to 42 percent. However, 58%  is a political Tsunami that needs to be understood differently.

58% is a Political Tsunami of UNP, SLFP, SJB  and SLPP

As I explained above, the opposition parties ignored AKD’s win by stating that 58% of voters were against AKD. In short, 58% was a bitter pill for them to swallow because the ground reality is that it is a political Tsunami for the four parties mentioned above for the following reasons. No single political party is standing alone, like the NPP (NPP was a coalition in 2019) for the general election.  There are alliances and re-alliances, and they continue to form partnerships because they do not have excellent or realistic plans or teams to develop the country; benefitting the people, instead, as usual, self-interests were of utmost and top priority, grabbing power and staying in control. RW cannot hold power and control anymore, so he has only the leadership position of UNP.  Some UNP stalwarts are no longer with RW, and Wajira Abeywarddna, who ensured ten million votes for RW, is not even on the national list. Some UNP members want to contest, along with Gas Cylinder, and others want to use the Elephant symbol; there is a disintegration, losing direction, or trying to find the North and South. Generally, there are many divisions and calamities within all opposition parties, while some party members openly blamed and accused party leaders, so leadership has become very cheap. Basil escaped, and Narmal found refuge with the national list; Hambantota retired after 80 years, even though MR claims it is temporary, which may be similar to Keheliya’s, as explained below. Utterly confused and disappointed SLPP Secretary Sagara Kariyawasam wants to support NPP, which is a good gesture as nothing is left for him. More than 80 MPs, the majority of who were with RW, have been  “highly disappointed,” “highly fed up,” and “frustrated” left politics forever while Keheliya, like individuals, wants to be away from politics for sometimes, literally may mean taking rest until going to live in a completely different territory in the future. The best way not to face the public is to find refuge on the national list, while one who is 83 wants to work for the country sitting in a wheelchair as he still loves the people and the country. As President AKD vividly stated, “NPP government appears to have introduced “retirement” to Sri Lankan politics, where none of the politicians had retired in the past, other than those who had lost in an election or had died.” The public can now enjoy how politicians sing and try to relax on top of their committed heap of sins. Some politicians with Gas Cylinder state they want to make a strong opposition, which is highly appreciated and valued in the parliamentary democracy but is highly doubtful or unrealistic because they will not even be back in parliament, so the strong opposition will be in vain.  Some politicians state their names on the ballot paper but request the public not to cast votes for them, while those who failed to be on the ballot paper are crying all the way. People must appreciate their love and commitment to developing the country. None wants the premiership as it is so expensive. Another significant factor is that UNP, SLFP, SJB, and SLPP now openly state that they do not wish to have corrupt people as members of parliament. Hence, their parties are free of corrupt people or politicians. This is indeed an excellent recent development of political culture, along with NPP. It is highly appreciated and valued if the above is true and correct, even after 76 years of political history in the country. Given the above, I indicated just the tip of 58% of the political Tsunami of UNP, SLFP, SJB and SLPP. However, I will elaborate on this later.

Dream of SJB about 90 and about 104 for NPP

In a recent meeting, the Secretary of SJB stated that NPP would win about 104 parliamentary seats while SBJ would win about 90 seats. He is the only one who is so optimistic, and as a result, his party will be happy. I am not going to argue with the above figures. However, based on the political Tsunami explained above, even winning one-third of 90 seems to be a formidable task for the following reasons. SJB received 1. 2 million fewer votes in 2024 than in the 2019 presidential election. Given the cheap leadership together, some stalwarts’ trust and faith in the SJB leader are declining.  SJB is a highly disintegrated political party, so it will never return to where it was before the presidential election. It has nothing to sell to buy voters as the support to hold grade 5 scholarship failed, excerpt criticizing NPP and President AKD cheaply. Undoubtedly, for the general election on 14^th November 2024, the North, East, and Upcountry voters/parliamentarians will support President AKD’s government because it will benefit them in many ways. The president is entirely and genuinely committed to working with the three areas mentioned above, similar to the rest of the county, having good knowledge and understanding of the problems and issues confined to the three regions in the country. Given all the above, the leader of SJB may regret that his name was not on the national list.

If UNP wins even a single seat during the general election, it will be a stunning victory for them for many reasons. If SLFP wins even a single seat, it will be a miracle. Regarding SLPP, winning a single seat is less than zero possibility. Given the 58% analysis in general and the above in particular, UNP, SLFP and SLPP possible winning of parliamentary seats as such that, the public will  observe the last rites of UNP, SLFP, and SLPP after 14 November 2024. It is the power of democracy, too late, that the above-mentioned political party leaders and politicians must have understood, not at all, the assets, power, and positions they accumulated, as their names will not be written in the country’s political history.

Quantity and Quality of the NPP/AKD-led parliament

Based on the slogan “We do not want 255; they all must go home,” the general election on 14 November 2024 must select the opposite of the 225 what the public and the country want. Based on my previous article in the Colombo Telegraph (CT), “AKD/NPP. Winning 113  seats is simple, but winning 150 and close to 200 is drastic and deliberate”, there is no doubt that NPP must fill the parliament with at least 113 MPs. However, after publishing the articles mentioned above, the political landscape has changed substantially in favor of NPP, so 150 will be an easy target for a strong parliament of NPP, as it is essential to fulfill the expectations of the public and the country.    

The point is that quantity alone is insufficient, and the quality of the parliamentarians, similar to that of President AKD, is mostly welcome and essential, as the public perception of the parliament is at a low ebb. The public remembers MPs acting like Mr. Bean, the verbal brawl of “Kauda Hora” and one Chili Powder carrier parliamentarian tarnished the August House’s good image. On some occasions, schoolchildren who were in the parliamentary gallery experienced the most unexpected. Also, it is relevant to write that 7 MPs were suspended in 2023 alone due to misconduct, an utter shame. It is hoped that the public will never hear any brawling in the parliament building of State Minister Diana Gamage, SJB MPs Rohana Bandara, and Sugith Sanjaya Pereira, who were suspended for one month. Also, one gold smuggler parliamentarian paid a Rs. 7 million fine and sat in the parliament the following day, amazed all.

In short, discipline has no substitutes, and it is a must behind the white clothes and European suits of parliamentarians. On the other hand, quality is not decided by education qualification alone; good communication skills, strategic thinking and decision-making, relationship building, creditability, accountability, transparency, utmost commitment, and use of technology are among the many required qualities, while capability and capacity to understand the needs of the public and living and moving with them will be excellent quality to indicate that parliamentarians should not have privileges and rights that public does not have.

Given all the above, there is no doubt that the NPP government led by President AKD will walk the talk, restoring the image of the parliament while ensuring it is money-worthy or productive for each rupee of the public funds spent on the parliament. In short, for a quality parliament, the NPP government led by President AKD will play the role expected by the public. In contrast, the quality opposition must be part and parcel of the endeavor mentioned above. Given the above, NPP will be able to govern the country towards “A Thriving Nation, A Beautiful life”.

Conclusion

All opposition parties ignored AKD’s victory, stating that 58% were against him. However, an in-depth analysis indicated that 58% is a political Tsunami for UNP, SLFP, SJB, and SLPP. None is interested in having a premiership, and as someone claimed, strong opposition is essential but it may be in vain. Given the above and among many, the public will observe the last rites for UNP, SLFP, and SLPP after the general election on 14^th November 2024,  the power of democracy that political parties and leaders should understand even after 76 years. President AKD/NPP led strong, and quality parliament will ensure the public expectation for “A Thriving Nation, A Beautiful life.”

*The writer, among many, worked as the Special Advisor to the Office of the President of Namibia and was a Senior Consultant with UNDP for 16 years. He worked as a Senior Economist with the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (1972-1993) before he migrated to New Zealand. The author can be contacted at asoka.seneviratne@gmail.com