by Rajan Philips

A newspaper editorial suggested that the NPP government is facing its December term test and that its weaknesses are showing. In fact, there have been quite a few term tests set up by different pundit examiners and they are producing a mixed bag of results. Overall and objectively, if I may say so, the government has done a reasonably good job for the most part; with a few bads, mainly gaffes, including a Prime Ministerial gaffe involving the two ‘Chinas’; and one standout ugly – the pathetic “PhD in Biochemistry and BSc in Chemical Engineering” lies of Asoka Ranwala MP, and his deservedly quick fall from Speakership grace. The focus has been mostly on his PhD boast, but his claim to a degree in Chemical Engineering is itself an instant hoax. And the leap from Chemical Engineering in Moratuwa to Biochemistry in Japan is manifestly ignorant and creatively stupid.

The real tests have been on the government’s many critics including almost all media outlets – all of them outside parliament as there is no worthwhile opposition within parliament, and all of them wanting to rip a feather off the fledgling AKD presidency and NPP government. The Speaker fiasco has been the critics’ biggest reward so far but even they know that Mr. Ranwala’s stupid twin boasts are a damning indictment of the man’s character but not a fatal flaw of the government. There is no excuse for what this quack of an MP did but there is a limit to which the government can take the blame for it.

There is no question that the NPP government is being asked by numerous critics to show either results or its abilities to produce them almost instantly. Quite a rigorous treatment for a new government and so early in its term. A few of the critics have still not been able to come to terms with the reality that Sri Lanka now has a new JVP (NPP) government. Others are in it for the ride, and also because many of them do not have the same cordial access to the inner circles of the present government as they would have had to its (Ranil-Rajapaksa) predecessors.

All that said, the government with so many new MPs and Ministers is still on a long learning curve, and there are miles to go before it has its real ‘term test’ – the next general election, which one would hope will only be a parliamentary election without another presidential election. And miles to go in many directions involving different ministries and new initiatives.

This Sunday, it will be 90 days since the presidential election and 37 days after the parliamentary election. At the year end, President Dissanayake will be completing his first one hundred days in office, while his full government would have been in office for 47 days. So far, it is the President who has been the centre of all actions and attention. If the government is serious about transitioning to a parliamentary democracy, other cabinet ministers must and must be encouraged to step up and take responsibility for their portfolios in a very public manner as it used to be before 1977 and even until 1994.

People’s Pre-occupations

While President AKD’s first hundred days may not have been spectacular, they have been solid. He could be proud of his tone setting inaugural speech to parliament, his leadership in providing continuity on economic matters, the setting up of a compact cabinet, and the deft handling of his first official visit to India, the island’s preponderant neighbour. While these are commendable accomplishments, the people’s preoccupations are about the availability of essential goods and the affordability of their prices. The government has not found its stride on either front.

Rice and coconuts, among other essentials, have become thorny issues both in terms of rising prices and growing shortages. Fuel and electricity costs are added concerns, though there have been reductions in fuel prices. People and even critics are willing to give the new government some slack, but because so much was promised by the NPP during the election campaigns that order and fairness will be restored in the supply and sale of essential goods and services, the general public and critics have been expecting to see at least different approaches to these problems by the new government even if there are no immediate results arising from them.

Rice, Sri Lanka’s perennial political problem, is now the NPP government’s primary problem. There are both shortages and the uncertainty of prices, which will have to be addressed promptly to avoid facing the fury of the people. The usual quick fixes like price control and supplementary imports are creating more confusion than resolution. The paradox of high levels of rice consumption and the relative poverty of the farmers who produce rice is a longstanding structural problem. But if NPP were to be worth its salt it needs to get cracking on some of these structural problems.

The most notorious of them and where immediate action is needed is the stranglehold that of about six large rice millers have on the rice market. They virtually control the upstream purchase of paddy in large quantities, provide for intermediate processing and storage in massive capacities, and similarly control the downstream sale of rice to wholesalers and retailers in the distribution market. In addition, the rice millers who have benefited hugely from bank credit facilities to build up their milling industry have now become the primary lenders for the poor farmers and producers of paddy. They have taken advantage of the lack of regulatory oversight under successive governments and now become out of control monsters.

In their 2022 research paper on Rice Milling Economics and Market Power, WAN Wijesooriya and IV Kuruppu, two Agrarian Researchers, recommend government initiatives for establishing a comprehensive database covering the rice milling industry in the country, and for encouraging the growth of medium scale millers to break the stranglehold of the largest rice mill holdings. If the NPP government wants to succeed where previous governments have not only failed but did not even try, it must make use of the agrarian expertise available in the country and spearhead a systematic approach to break the stranglehold of the large rice millers. Anything less will be fruitless tinkering with a longstanding problem. The government must also encourage its subject Ministers to take the lead on these matters rather than channelling any and all files all the way to the President’s desk.

Indian Visit

I am not sure whether Sri Lanka’s current rice crisis came up for discussion during the President’s otherwise successful official visit to India. I do not recall if the word rice being in any of the reports or statements on the visit. Rice may not be the only missing word. There have been no references to 13A, or its plus or minus. For the first time, according to one wordy observer, the word ‘Tamil’ has been missing in all the public pronouncements of the visit. During his first meeting with a Sri Lankan President (Mahinda Rajapaksa) in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi famously reset the bilateral clock to 13A. Perhaps 13A was a bone of contention when the Rajapaksas were at the helm.

Not anymore, it would seem, with a different President, a new government, its tone and messaging, and most of all the topsy turvy election results in the North and East of Sri Lanka. The NPP government could not have hoped for a better start with India on, for want of a less offensive word to some ears, the ‘Tamil’ file; but it has quite a bit of homework to keep it going the way it has started. The objective should be not to ‘disappear Tamil’ as a bilateral subject, but to accommodate Sri Lanka’s Tamils, Muslims and the Tamils of recent Indian origin as equal citizens in law and fact, in a not too distant post-racial Sri Lanka.

For all the historical ties and the geographical proximity between India and Sri Lanka, the relationship between the two countries in the twenty first century is both seen in and defined by the backdrop of China. President AKD’s visit was seen both as a test and as a signal as to which way he might be leaning considering the fact that his two predecessors have been wildly inclined to one side or the other.

Ranil Wickremesinghe, as former president, has been egging President AKD to go all in with India and follow the vision statement he co-announced with Modi in India without any reference to anyone back home. On the other hand, Mahinda Rajapaksa since becoming President in 2005 tilted Sri Lanka significantly towards China without unduly disturbing India. Which way will the wind be blowing with President AKD, has been the question on the minds of all observers of the little Indian Ocean drama involving Sri Lanka.

To his credit, President AKD flew straight and was sincere and honest in his interactions in New Delhi, and he could be expected to be similarly straight, sincere and honest when he goes to Beijing. Enough has been said about the range of topics for co-operation between India and Sri Lanka that was covered by the two leaders and articulated in their joint statement. The areas of co-operation between Sri Lanka and China may not be so extensive on paper but have been quite substantial on the ground.

The challenge to the NPP government, in my view, would be to take a comprehensive review of the plethora of projects in Sri Lanka that have been and are slated to be undertaken by the two Asian giants, make an assessment of their costs and benefits, and to have an integrated internal plan to ensure that the country would maximize the benefits of these projects, while minimizing environmental impacts and avoiding waste and duplication of resources.