By Vishwamithra –

“There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self.”  ~Ernest Hemingway

What Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) received as Presidential candidate may not have been a mandate. Forty three percentage (43%) of the total, in fact, is not a so-called majority of a 100%. Therefore, all those pundits and mathematical scholars would interpret that plurality is not a majority. But it’s sheer semantics rather than a realistic interpretation of the ground situation. However, the euphoric celebrations that followed the last two Presidential Elections, victories of Maithripala Sirisena in 2015 and Gotabhaya Rajapaksa in 2019, did not materialize amongst those who support the NPP or its leader after AKD’s win. And quite rightly so. The gravity of the sociopolitical reality has restricted the generation for which change is more than just a matter of course. For them change may have presented itself as a more profound experience.

The game has just begun. The players are on the field and many have retired hurt and the dominant one is taking it with the calmness of an experienced player although it is his debut. All the dynamics of an excruciatingly painful exercise are bearing on the fresh shoulders of the new ones. As a matter of fact, AKD and the NPP may be masters of politics and electioneering, yet their sense of statecraft and aptitudes of navigating a nation’s destinies, especially in the troubled waters of geopolitics, will be tested in near future. The economic recovery itself will largely depend on how well President Dissanayake tackles the challenging circumstances of the geopolitical realities that surround the country.

His astuteness and perspicacity as a statesman would be scrutinized and questioned in regard to every step he takes towards India, China, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Even an experienced politician could be hesitant in launching into a fresh set of regional policies and principles. Those who rule the South Indian subcontinent and China towards further East are all seasoned politicians; their collective response to  appeals for assistance and cooperation would be closely guarded as well as measured in the context of their own problems, economic or otherwise.

In such challenging circumstances, the so-called pundits ask questions; they resort to, as I have already penned in my last column, pontificating from their armchair comforts. They offer solutions which have been tried, tested and failed on innumerable occasions during the previous regimes. In other words, they display their displeasure with the notion of change. Their uncomfortable accommodation of a non-elite leader is fast reaching a point where a sense of patriotism is overcome by their self-esteem. Such a saddening reality is growing organically, especially amongst our elites. Being able to afford luxuriant lifestyles is no pre-qualification for passing judgment on matters that are way above their comprehension.

Such segments of our population might invariably settle down with the passage of time. But the shelf-life of such occasions would be short and swift. Fleeting moments of disappointment and introspection might arise and try to unsettle the mindset of many a doubter; nevertheless, what began as a long-awaited journey must continue. An experiment cannot be subjected to short-term abandonment.

The initial signs are all good; in fact, better than expected. The people’s expectations about eradicating corruption and political dishonesty are being met slowly but surely. But it must also occur to those who are in power now that erratic and random decision-making should stop. A strategically crafted long-term solutions to the burning issue of cost of living, alleviating poverty as macro solutions for the economy instead of adoption of populist measures should be averted at all costs. It might be extraordinarily bitter at the beginning; but the electorate seems to be well prepared for even tougher times. The sense of trust the people show in these pugnacious times must be coupled with aggressive application of sensible-looking policies.

Times are even tougher for Sri Lanka’s neighbors. Bangladesh experienced a violent ouster of her leader; Pakistan’s stability looks increasingly susceptible to the vagaries global fluctuations of oil and other essential supplies. Sri Lanka is sitting on top of uncertainty. Entrenched in successive governments’ corrupt practices and having been positioned at the bottom layers in economic management, we managed to avert a repeat of failed policies and principles.

The Subcontinent is watching us closely. They, especially India, might rather prefer not-so-an-incorruptible and a less steady regime dependent on unsteadier governance structures. That is the geopolitical reality President Dissanayake and his government have to deal with. India and other major powers would not express their sentiments and real motivations behind their refined diplomatic language, but the cruel reality is such. As much as we need to tilt and adjust our foreign policy in order to extract the maximum benefits to ourselves, so do they, other countries and their governments.

To ensure a firm and steady government at home, it is of paramount importance that President Dissanayake and the NPP receive a workable majority in Parliament. A two thirds majority is not a must; but a comfortable majority in the House with no dependence on other parties to form a parliamentary majority is a sine qua non. It is more than possible that the NPP would form a government with more than 113 seats in Parliament. That will silence not only those who say that AKD did not get a mandate from the people as less than 50% voted for him at the Presidential Elections would not qualify for a ‘mandate’. But securing more than 113 seats in Parliament would. The way the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) is structured now and the poor mechanics that they employed to win the Presidential Elections point to an inevitable defeat for them at the forthcoming parliamentary elections for sure.

With so much in a chaotic state in the SJB, Sajith and his team would not have any time or space to  strategize their geopolitical agenda. They don’t seem to have anyone in particular who has the aptitude and skill to advise Sajith on geopolitical matters. While both India and China are eminently equipped in the sphere of geopolitical maneuvers in a decisive measure, Sri Lanka is barely equipped  both intellectually and in physical strength to counter either India or China.

The challenge before AKD’s government is enormous; its diverse shades and operative styles could be unprecedented. There might be some unnamed officials in the Ministry of External Affairs who are well versed in matters of geopolitical dynamics, yet the leadership must emanate from the Minister downwards. In the short time AKD has been at the switch of governance, he has not shown any inclination towards a doctrinaire approach; would he try to apply some outdated ‘Cold-war’ style Marxian principles in the handling of this crucial aspect of governance- external affairs? Signs are that he would not. His practical and common-sensical preparation of the country’s post-Presidential mindset, especially in the context of economic uncertainty, does not indicate any ideological bearing either to the right or left of the political spectrum.

In the absence of ideological and theoretical allegiance to any isms, President Dissanayake would be a fresh player with a load of commitment and desire to do good for his country. His loyalty to his countrymen seems boundless; that loyalty must manifest itself in the application and equally determined usage of policies and principles to the resolution of some outstanding issues we have with India and China.

The rumor-mill is full of talk with stories that China is pressurizing the President not to pursue an aggressive approach to bringing the Rajapaksas before the law. If there is any shade of truth in such rumors, AKD will be required to take his decisions on the side of the country at large. What those interests of the ‘country at large’ are, I do not want to speculate now.

Nevertheless, both India and China too will realize that President Dissanayake is not a Rajapaksa or a Wickremesinghe of days gone by. The people elected a new President, not only for his pronounced local policies bust also for the navigation in an unsteady ocean of geopolitical issues and conflicts. As much as AKD could be unsure of the waters, the regional leaders also would be groping in a relatively fresh but foggy arena.

Whichever way pundits define it, geopolitics is a subject that is essentially looked at solely in the context of each country’s self-interests. The stronger the country’s economy and the military, the more rigid its stance in relation to the neighboring member of the group. However,  display of stronger personality traits by the leaders in question, could also play somewhat a decisive role. But this display should necessarily be backed by economic and military strength, perceived of real. Amateur ones shall ultimately be humiliated and taken out of the geopolitical equation.

That is why a balanced approach backed by a balanced assessment of one’s strengths and weaknesses is the only way in which a small nation such as Sri Lanka should adopt. I’m sure President Dissanayake would adopt such a method which is accompanied with an equilibrium of varying  factors with a wealth of knowledge of his neighbors’ strengths and weaknesses. A strong personality and a steady understanding of all that surrounds geopolitical dynamics should be the order of the day.

*The writer can be reached at vishwamithra1984@gmail.com