The fact that many politicians who have overstayed their welcome on the national scene will not be running for parliament at the November election was reported even before nominations closed at noon on Friday as this comment is being written. Obviously that was certainly not due to any altruism on their part. The results of the Sept. 21 presidential election made that crystal clear. For example, if Namal Rajapaksa’s pathetic tally island-wide at the presidential contest is duplicated by the pohottuwa at the forthcoming contest, he would barely be able to qualify for a national list seat. No wonder then why he has chosen a national list option when the alternative will be rejection by the voters even in the Rajapaksa’s Hambantota stronghold. Many other senior parliamentarians also saw the writing on the wall and are retiring on comfortable pensions by courtesy of the taxpayer. Others have taken refuge in national lists.

There is no escaping the reality that the NPP/JVP shook-up the country’s electoral scene like never before, opening the door for many new faces to enter the legislature. Who they will be, particularly in the malimawa side, will only become clear after nominations close. The AKD party has gone public on its target of winning a two thirds majority while Premadasa is aiming for a parliamentary majority and the prime ministry either in alliance or on his own. We have consistently argued in this space that tyrannies of absolute majorities are not good for ther. Mrs. Bandaranaike, with the two thirds majority of her old left-backed United Front in 1970 extended the life of that parliament by two years. JR Jayewardene, with his five sixths majority seven years later, “rolled up the electoral map” as he famously proclaimed, for one full parliamentary term.

History demonstrates that the powerful presidency held by one side and legislative power by another is inimical to political stability. This was clearly demonstrated in 2004 when CBK as president got rid of a Ranil Wickremesinghe government and dissolved parliament. In an interview at a critical juncture in Sri Lanka’s history, when the country was sliding into war, former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga said that she made a big mistake by sacking the pro-peace United National Party (UNP) government led by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe in 2004. “It was wrong,” Kumaratunga told the editor of Sunday Leader Lasantha Wickrematunge “It was the JVP and those in my party who were keen to win the elections and take office who pushed me to dissolve (parliament),” she said.

Whether the NPP/JVP, capitalizing on the presidential election, can win comfortably on Nov. 14 will only be clear after the results are declared. But it will indubitably put up a strong performance as it did in September as it can attract those who did not vote last time round and others won over since the AKD victory. Also, groups that backed Premadasa and RW for the presidency are paddling their own canoes this time round and that will benefit the NPP/JVP ticket.

The many defections we saw in the run up to the presidential election had very little to do with the candidates running for office. It was all a matter of defectors placing themselves in what they hoped was the right side for the expected parliamentary elections now called. The NPP/JVP turned down those who knocked at their door – AKD went on record saying there were some of these though he named no names – so they had to seek refuge in either the SJB or the gas cylinder coalition RW cobbled together to run as an independent at the presidential election. He finished a poor third the and the pohottuwa was left with a pitiful rump of a once formidable majority. Most mainstream parties had appointed parliamentary aspirants as organizers for different electorates long before the last parliament was dissolved and elbowing them out to make room for newcomers was obviously no easy task as Patali Champika Ranawaka has found to his cost.

Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s decision not to run this time was widely expected. He has looked very frail in recent television appearances and it is clear that he is not in the best of health. He would undoubtedly campaign to the best of his ability for the SLPP and his son although he is ending a very long political career where he scaled the highest peaks. The announcement that Daham Sirisena, son of former President Maithripala Sirisena, was running under the banner of Dilith Jayaweera’s Mawbima Janatha Party was a clear signal that the former president intended bowing out of the parliamentary race. Many will be happy to see the last of him. Despite attaining the presidency, he chose to return to parliament under Rajapaksa colours after defeating Mahinda Rajapaksa in an acrimonious election in 2015. Questions on whether he will continue attempts to regain control of the SLFP have also emerged. The results of this election will influence that. While it was obvious RW would not run after his defeat last month, his party’s statement significantly said he did not expect to enter parliament through the national list. But that was exactly what he did in June 2021, ten months after August 2020. The rest of course is history.