Post-presidential election analysis:

by Dammike Kobbekaduwe,
FIPM(SL), Member-CIPM-SL, MBA(HRM)
Objectives of the Exercise

To evaluate the performance of the four prominent presidential candidates (A, B, C, D) across key governance and policy areas.To analyse their strengths and weaknesses in political marketing and campaign strategies.To provide a winning formula for securing the general elections and establishing the largest party representation in Parliament.

Sri Lanka’s recent presidential elections saw four notable candidates—A, B, C, and D —vying for the nation’s leadership amidst economic challenges and the goal of improving the GDP and increasing per capita income beyond $12,000 per annum. In this analysis, we examine the candidates’ performances in economic vision, governance, foreign policy, social policies, environmental strategies, and their political marketing. While A emerged victorious in the presidential race, the general elections offer an opportunity to apply lessons learned from each candidate’s strengths and weaknesses. This article proposes a winning formula to dominate the upcoming general elections, using the best strategies from each candidate’s campaign and appealing to a broad voter base.

The Message: Analysing the Performances of Candidates A, B, C, and D

1. Economic Vision & the need to Double the GDP

A excelled in promoting local industries and small and medium enterprises (SMEs). His focus on domestic production won him strong grassroots support. However, his limitations in attracting foreign direct investments (FDI) suggest a need for a more balanced economic approach.

B demonstrated expertise in global economics, favouring international trade and FDI. While his experience made him the choice for those wanting global integration, his perceived lack of focus on domestic industries hurt his appeal with local businesses.

C focused on fiscal reforms but lacked a clear strategy for expanding export industries and reducing the trade deficit, crucial components for achieving a $12,000 per capita income.

D emphasised private sector growth, positioning himself as the pro-business candidate. However, his limited public economic policy experience raised concerns about his ability to manage national finances.

Winning Formula: The candidate or party aiming to win the general elections must combine A’s focus on local industry with B’s strategies for international trade and FDI. A clear, well-rounded economic vision is essential to appeal to both local entrepreneurs and global investors.

2. Governance & Leadership Qualities

A capitalized on his reputation for strong leadership and anti-corruption measures. His decisive actions resonated with voters seeking change, although his risk of over-centralizing power could pose governance challenges.

B was the candidate of stability and experience, particularly in handling complex governance issues. His weakness, however, was being seen as part of the old guard, unable to inspire transformative change.

C, while known for welfare policies, was seen as lacking decisive leadership, essential for the fast-paced reforms required to achieve economic growth.

D brought charismatic leadership and a business-like approach, but his lack of experience in governance was a significant drawback.

Winning Formula: A successful party must project strong leadership and the ability to govern effectively. Combining A’s anti-corruption platform with B’s governance expertise could resonate with a broader spectrum of voters, while ensuring the message of reform is clearly communicated.

3. Foreign Policy and International Trade

A emphasized regional partnerships but lacked strong alliances with global economic powers, which are crucial for trade and investments.

B had deep foreign relations experience and strong ties with international organizations. However, his traditional approach was viewed as stagnant by voters seeking fresh diplomatic strategies.

C had a balanced approach but failed to present a robust plan to expand Sri Lanka’s international trade network.

D aimed to attract investments, but his lack of diplomatic experience raised questions about his ability to build international alliances.

Winning Formula: The next winning political party must blend B’s foreign policy experience with D’s entrepreneurial vision. By positioning Sri Lanka as an attractive destination for investment while strengthening ties with both regional and global powers, the party can appeal to voters concerned with economic growth through international trade.

4. Social Policies and Human Rights

A  concentrated on programmes for the working class, though there were concerns about how this might strain the state budget.

B supported moderate welfare reforms but was perceived as less committed to addressing social inequalities.

C emphasised healthcare and education but lacked the fiscal backing to implement expansive social programs.

D promoted private sector solutions to social issues, which some saw as neglecting direct government intervention.

Winning Formula: Combining A’s focus on social welfare with D’s private sector-driven approach would allow for a balanced strategy that ensures sustainable social programmes without overburdening the state budget.

5. Environmental and Climate Policies

A made strides in sustainable agriculture but lacked emphasis on climate innovations and renewable energy.

B had clear environmental strategies but was seen as slow to act on urgent climate issues.

C promoted green energy but faced challenges in securing the funds to execute these projects.

D focused on eco-tourism and corporate responsibility but had minimal national-level environmental governance experience.

Winning Formula: A party that merges A’s grassroots environmental approach with B’s international alignment on climate accords could build a strong platform for sustainable development.

6. Intentions to Achieve $12,000 Per Capita Income

A emphasised reducing income inequality through local growth but was slower in tapping global economic opportunities.

B with his market reforms, had the potential to drive per capita growth but faced criticism for not uplifting all population segments equally.

C ought to improve public sector wages but lacked a plan for broad-based wealth generation.

D focused on high-income sectors like IT and tourism but lacked a comprehensive national income strategy.

Winning Formula: The successful party must integrate A’s focus on equitable income distribution with B’s market-driven strategies to achieve rapid growth in high-income sectors.

Conclusion: The Winning Formula for the General Elections

For a political party to secure dominance in the upcoming general elections and achieve the largest parliamentary representation, it must:

Combine A’s focus on local industries and anti-corruption with B’s global economic integration and governance expertise.

Appeal to the working class with A’s social policies, while incorporating D’s private sector-driven economic model to avoid overburdening the state budget.

Develop a balanced foreign policy that blends B’s diplomatic expertise with D’s entrepreneurial approach to international trade.

Adopt A’s environmental grassroots measures with B’s climate innovation strategies to appeal to environmentally conscious voters.

Present a coherent plan to double GDP and achieve $12,000 per capita income by integrating A’s income equality focus with B’s market reforms.

Political Marketing Strategies Comparison

A: Successfully harnessed a grassroots movement, engaging with voters through social media and town halls. His anti-corruption platform gave him a clear message.

B: Relied on traditional media and his established political network. While stable, his campaign lacked innovation.

C: Used moderate social media engagement but failed to generate the excitement necessary for voter mobilisation.

D: Pioneered a corporate-style political campaign, using branding and digital marketing techniques. However, his lack of political experience diminished his appeal among traditional voters.

Next-Level Political Marketing Strategy: To win the general elections, the party should adopt a hybrid model, combining A’s grassroots mobilization with D’s corporate branding techniques, while ensuring that their message is coherent and reflects both economic growth and social welfare.

References

Senaratne, R. (2024). Economic Strategies for National Development. Colombo: University Press.

Jayasuriya, N. (2023). Foreign Policy in Emerging Markets. Colombo: Ceylon Policy Research Center.

De Silva, K. (2023). Governance and Leadership in Sri Lanka. Colombo: Nation Builders Press.

Perera, S. (2024). Political Campaigning in the Digital Age. Colombo: Ceylon Digital.

Fernando, P. (2023). Climate Policies for South Asia. Colombo: Green Future Initiative.

The article was developed by Lalin I De Silva, Value chain journalist of www.vivonta.lk, former Senior Planter, Agricultural Advisor/ Consultant, Secretary General of Ceylon Planters Society, Editor of Ceylon Planters Society Bulletin and freelance journalist.