Gautam Adani

In response to US indictment, Adani has declared that his conglomerate is committed to “world-class regulatory compliance.” The international media quoted one of the world’s richest as having said: “This is not the first time we have faced such challenges. What I can tell you is that every attack makes us stronger. And every obstacle becomes a stepping stone for a more resilient Adani Group.”

Adani said so at an awards ceremony in Jaipur.

By Shamindra Ferdinando

Dr. Ganeshan Wignarajah, in his capacity as an advisor to the Sri Lankan President, and member of the Geopolitical Cartographer board, as mentioned in the latest Indo-Pacific Defence Forum, dealt with the ongoing economic-political-social crisis here.

Dr. Wignarajah, who had served as the Executive Director of the Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute (LKI) during the Yahapalana administration, quite confidently asserted (i) economic mismanagement (ii) Chinese loans and (iii) Covid-19 and other external shocks caused the unprecedented crisis.

The quarterly, published by the Commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, is meant to promote their overall political-military and social strategy in the Indo-Pacific region.

The Sri Lankan-born academic, in his article titled ‘Partners for Progress: Sri Lanka works with India, U.S. to bolster economy, stability,’ examined the developing situation here against the backdrop of, what he called, Chinese debt trap diplomacy. China has strongly refuted such accusations over the years. We haven’t forgotten the verbal battle between Yahapalana Finance Minister Ravi Karunanayake and the then Chinese Ambassador Yi Xianliang over the former’s disparaging remarks on interest rates on loans provided by China. This was in late 2016, several months after the second mega Treasury bonds scam, perpetrated by the Premier Ranil Wickremesinghe-led government.

Dr. Wignarajah conveniently refrained from making reference to over USD 10,000 million in new International Sovereign Bonds that had been taken between 2015 and 2019, following the change of government. Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa is on record as having declared procurement of USD 10,000 million, by the Yahapalana leaders, broke the back of the Sri Lankan economy. Instead, the academic cleverly hid the Yahapalana borrowings. Dr. Wignarajah declared (in verbatim): “Sri Lanka’s default demonstrates the risk of imprudent foreign borrowing, with relying on sovereign bonds with high interest rates to finance development projects or high-interest, low return Chinese loans.’’

As the article had been formulated before the presidential election that was held on Sept. 21, 2024, the professorial fellow in economics and trade at Gateway House, Mumbai, missed an opportunity to examine post-national poll developments.

The unexpected emergence of the National People’s Power (NPP), as the dominant political power, at the expense of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) and the United National Party (UNP), according to some, may change the dynamics of Sri Lanka’s relations with the US-led grouping that includes India. However, others assert that bankrupt Sri Lanka has no other option but to continue with the IMF agenda and an agreement on economic partnership, signed in July 2023, by Premier Narendra Modi and the then President Ranil Wickremesinghe.

Wickremesinghe, who suffered a humiliating defeat in the presidential poll on September 21, and then at the parliamentary elections on Nov. 14, 2024, emphasized the responsibility on the part of his successor Anura Kumara Dissanayake to fully implement, what he called, the ‘Vision document’ with India.

The Press Trust of India (PTI) quoted Wickremesinghe as having said so on the sidelines of an event he attended at the Sri Sathya Sai Vidya Vihar school recently.

The SLPP-led Parliament that elected Wickremesinghe as the President in July 2022 to complete the remainder of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s five-year term, owed the country an explanation whether the former received the approval of the Cabinet to finalize the so-called ‘vision document.’ The latest Indo-Lanka agreement dealt with strengthening maritime, air and energy ties, as well as land connectivity between the two countries. There hadn’t been a proper discourse, at any level, regarding the ‘Vision document,’ though various interested parties promoted the controversial ‘Vision document’ in the run-up to the presidential election.

On behalf of India, Pathfinder Foundation requested the leading candidates at the presidential election, namely Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake, to go ahead with the ‘vision document.’

It would be pertinent to mention that Dr. Wignarajah has ceased to be an advisor to the Sri Lankan President in the wake of Wickremesinghe’s defeat. The advisor had been also involved with Pathfinder Foundation as a senior visiting fellow at the Foundation.

He has had the audacity to even deal in cavalier fashion with India’s intervention in 2022 to save Sri Lanka with reference to the Adani Group’s investments here as well as longstanding US projects, such as the Millennium Challenge Corporation that was rejected by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s government.

Essentially, the expert addressed the issues at hand from the point of view of the US-India response to the Sri Lanka crisis.

New developments

The killing of Canada-based Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar outside his Vancouver temple in June 2023 has caused an unprecedented diplomatic row between New Delhi and Ottawa. The killing that Canada had blamed on India without whatsoever hesitation led to tit-for-tat expulsion of diplomatic staff. Among those who had been expelled were the top most Indian and Canadian intelligence officials based in the respective capitals.

But what really upset New Delhi was the US and the UK throwing their collective weight behind Canadian accusations, thereby undermining the Modi government’s international standing. Perhaps, the harm that had been caused to the relations between Canada and India can never be restored.

International news agencies in Oct, 2024 quoted the spokesperson of the UK’s Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) as having said: “We are in contact with our Canadian partners about the serious developments outlined in the independent investigations in Canada. The UK has full confidence in Canada’s judicial system. Respect for sovereignty and the rule of law is essential.”

“The Government of India’s cooperation with Canada’s legal process is the right next step,” the official added.

On top of the simmering diplomatic row with Ottawa, the US has filed charges against an Indian government employee over his alleged involvement in a failed plot to kill an American citizen of Indian origin. The Federal Bureau of Investigation has identified a New York-based targeted person as a prominent advocate for Sikh separatism.

The US Attorney’s Office for New York declared in Oct, 2024 that it filed “murder-for-hire and money laundering charges” against Vikash Yadav.

Another suspect in the case, Nikhil Gupta, was extradited to the US earlier, in 2024, to face charges, while Yadav remains at large. There hadn’t been such high profile previous cases involving Indian government agents conducting clandestine operations in the West.

Canadian and US investigations have placed India in an utterly embarrassing position. In spite of strong Indian denials, both Canada and the US have maintained that India is under investigation.

The possibility of Canada and the US trying to establish a connection between those who had been involved in operations in their respective territories cannot be ruled out.

The state of crisis of Indian foreign relations with the West has to be discussed, taking into consideration the shocking Canadian declaration that no less than Home Minister Amit Shah, widely believed to be the second most powerful person in the country, sanctioned the Vancouver hit.

Regardless of Indian denial, Canada has refused to change its stand with regards to Shah’s direct involvement in targeting those India considered as a threat. There seems to be no way forward for India on the matter, especially in the West as both Canada and the US pursued investigations.

How could the Canadian and US common stand in respect of clandestine operations undertaken by India undermine India’s once robust relations with the West? Can the West jeopardize their relations with India, at a time they are in conflict with China and Russia?

The Modi’s government obviously has ended up with egg on its face and is struggling to cope up with extremely harmful media coverage. Shah is the chief aide to Premier Modi.

Against the backdrop of Canadian accusations directed at Shah, the US is also likely to probe the possibility of the powerful Home Minister having a hand in the New York operation. Whatever the outcome of Canadian and US investigations, New Delhi will have to address the collective responsibility on the part of the Indian Cabinet in authorizing clandestine operations overseas.

The Adani factor

Dr. Ganeshan Wignarajah

When Wickremesinghe recently demanded that his successor President Dissanayake goes ahead with the ‘Vision document’ with India, he was probably turning a blind eye to the US indictment of Gautam Adani over high profile accusations regarding the USD 265 mn alleged bribery scam to benefit Indian government officials.

Perhaps, the US move against Adani, one of the closest associates of Modi, may destabilize Indo-US relations. Adani and seven others had been charged over, what the US called, the corrupt solar project. They have been accused of securities fraud, conspiracy to commit securities fraud, and wire fraud.

Dr. Wignarajah, in his piece to the US military magazine, praised the Adani projects here to the high heavens. Obviously, as the US indictment hadn’t been announced at the time the academic submitted his piece to the Indo-Pacific command, he couldn’t be faulted for the omission. However, the new Sri Lanka government shouldn’t try to side-step the issue by engaging in delaying tactics.

Unexpected bribery accusations that had been directed at the Indian conglomerate placed a major US funded project here under an extremely difficult situation, particularly because the US was to provide funding to the tune of over half a billion USD. The West Container Terminal at the Colombo port involved Sri Lankan blue chip John Keells and the Adani Group. Other participants are Special Economic Zone Limited and Sri Lanka Ports Authority in the USD 700 mn project.

The NPP government never expected the US to move legal action against the Adani group and may find it difficult to explain Sri Lanka’s continuing partnership with the Indian conglomerate. Unless of course, proper reassessment was made in respect of the Port project as well as other investments, particularly investment of U.S. 1.4 bn for wind power plants.

The US recently disclosed that though they promised over half a billion USD for the Colombo port project, the funding hadn’t been made available so far. Would denial of US funding undermine the implementation of the Port project. Construction began in Nov. 2022, five months after Parliament elected Wickremesinghe as the President.

The US stepped in during Ranil Wickremesinghe tenure as the President after previous plans for the East Container Terminal, involving Japan and India, had to be shelved due to protests. Sri Lanka had no other option but to offer the Colombo West Terminal project to appease New Delhi, furious about unilateral cancellation. The country paid a huge price for such cancellations, having announced mega projects without proper evaluation and consensus with stakeholders. There can be no better example than the idiotic cancellation of the Japanese-funded Colombo light rail project soon after the 2020 general election.

Japan reacted angrily to the unilateral announcement of the cancellation of USD 1.4 bn project funded by Japan through a soft loan.

What would be the fate of the West Container Terminal project in case Adani and JKH had to fund it in the absence of US financial backing? How could the US and India intend to maintain close links as desired by both powers against China in the backdrop of continuing bad press over attacks on Sikhs living overseas and the Adani fiasco.

The Congress-led Indian Opposition disrupted both Lower and Upper Houses of Parliament demanding a joint committee to investigate Adani’s companies in the agriculture, renewable energy, coal and infrastructure sectors. Unless India addresses accusations against Adani in a transparent manner, they can have long term repercussions, both domestically and internationally.

In the wake of the US indictment, Kenya cancelled multimillion-dollar deals with the Adani Group for airport modernization and energy projects. The mega company will also face scrutiny in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

The damage to US-India ties would be much more with legal action against Adani compelling India to play it safe. While the government remained silent on the issue at hand, Amit Malviya, the governing Bharatiya Janata Party’s IT head, declared in a post on the social media platform X that the US charges were “allegations and the defendants are presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty.” Critics asserted that this was nothing but a show of support by the Modi government for the Adani Group.

It would be interesting to see how the much weakened Opposition in Sri Lanka Parliament takes up the Adani issue. Parliament meets this week, though the issue is not on the agenda, an Opposition member may take the opportunity to comment on the politically sensitive matter.

Adani is the major Indian investor here. According to available data, Adani’s projects account for nearly 70% of overall Indian investments during the 2005-2019 period.

A story from the past

Undue Indian government intervention on behalf of Adani group was disclosed amidst unprecedented political turmoil here with President Gotabaya Rajapaksa under tremendous pressure in June 2022 with the country unable to finance basic needs with covert groups even having blocked worker remittances through official channels.

The revelation was made by then head of the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) M.C.C. Ferdinando during an open hearing of the Committee of Public Enterprises (COPE) that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa told him that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had insisted that a 500-megawatt wind power project be directly given to the Adani group.

Embattled President Rajapaksa denied the disclosure. Within two days after the shocking declaration in Parliament, Ferdinando claimed that he lied after being overwhelmed by emotion. Of course no one took Ferdinando’s denial seriously for obvious reasons.

“On November 24, 2021, the President summoned me after a meeting and said, India’s Prime Minister Modi is pressuring him to hand over the project to the Adani group,” Ferdinando said, according to a video clip of his testimony made available by Parliament. According to the CEB head, he had received instructions from President Rajapaksa in this regard in Nov. 2021, just weeks after Adani visited Colombo.

Ferdinando was responding to questions posed by the then head of COPE Prof. Charitha Herath and another member about the circumstances the Adani group had chosen to construct a 500 MW wind power plant on the northern coast.

Ferdinando told the committee that he informed the President that the matter didn’t concern the CEB, but the Board of Investments. “The President insisted that I look into it. I then sent a letter mentioning that the President has instructed me and the Finance Secretary should do the needful. I pointed out that this is a government-to-government deal,” Ferdinando said.

During the heated hearings, Prof. Herath asked whether the wind power deal would be considered “unsolicited”. “Yes, this is a government-to-government deal, but the negotiations should take place according to the least cost policy mentioned in the act,” said Ferdinando.

On the following day, President Rajapaksa contradicted the CEB Chief. “Re a statement made by the #lka CEB Chairman at a COPE committee hearing regarding the award of a Wind Power Project in Mannar, I categorically deny authorization to award this project to any specific person or entity,” he tweeted.

“I have withdrawn that statement,” Ferdinando said. The media quoted the CEB Chief as having said that he only realized that he mistakenly made such a comment, when the Minister inquired from him about the matter on Saturday (June 11) morning.

Thereafter, Ferdinando issued a statement to Prof. Hearth on Saturday in which he tendered an apology, saying that due to “unexpected pressures and emotions”, he was compelled to name the Indian Prime Minister.

The public hearing took place on a Friday, a day after Parliament passed an amendment to the 1989 Electricity Act that removed competitive bidding. The main opposition, Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), alleged that the primary reason for bringing forward the amendment was to accommodate the “unsolicited” Adani deal. The SJB demanded that projects beyond 10 MW capacity should go through a competitive bidding process.

The amendments to the Sri Lanka Electricity Act were passed with 120 votes in favour of the amendments with 36 voting against in the 225-member Parliament amid strong resistance from power sector trade unions in the state-run Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB). Thirteen MPs abstained in the voting.

The story should be examined taking into consideration Adani’s pow vows with President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Premier Mahinda Rajapaksa in late Oct. 2021 in Colombo.